Sunday, September 11, 2011

Ironman 70.3 World Championship Time Predictions

Let's start this off by saying that the Las Vegas course was coordinated to be a difficult course.  I also have very little for comparison.  So with only my time from Rhode Island to go on, here are my predictions.

Athlete #1675

Swim - 0:34:59

Water temp last night was 82 F.  It's going to be a large bath tub.  The start is deep water.  Swimming has been my strong point, so I want to capitalize on it and make better compared to Rhode Island.

T1 - 0:03:59

The distance from swim exit to T1 took me one minute to jog today.  Then we are handed our bags, we change in tents, run through, grab our bike, run about another minute to the mount line.  The goal is going to be tight.

Bike - 3:15:00

They told us at athlete briefing "There is no flat section on this course."  I'll tell you now that that's a lie.  Most of the course IS rolling hills though, so it'll be tough.  I know Rhode Island's performance would add some time here, but I know I also have plenty of improvements to make on the bike.  So instead of a 3:30 prediction, I'm going with optimism.  We'll see how that pans out in tomorrow's 80 degree temps.

T2 - 0:00:59

This is going to ROCK!  I get to hand my bike off to a volunteer, grab my run bag, change my shirt, and RUN.  That will cut down my transition time significantly. 

Run - 1:50

I was very unhappy by walking in Rhode Island, so my main goal is to never walk.  The first goal is to never walk.  The first out-and-back is shady; I want to focus on taking a gel and finding my rhythm early.  The second out-and-back is a long uphill and back down.  The uphill will be my mental test every lap.  The down will be energy-saving mode.  I know I can better my Rhode Island time, but the temperature will be the wild card. 

TOTAL - 5:44:57

Let's see how that holds up!

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Michael said...

I hope you meet your goal times! Sounds like you have a good plan in mind. Good luck!

Matthew Smith said...

I'm sure you're done by now, but I bet you did great. I can't wait for the report. Enjoy the rest and recovery.

Marni Sumbal, MS, RD said...

I love that you made time goals! I always tell myself that my body is capable and trained for "x" times but it is all up to the conditions, nutrition and attitude on race day..the controllables. However, with the uncontrollables still comes a great attitude and the ability to make the most of the day! Can't wait to read your race report! Heard it was a tough day!

Coy Martinez said...

Good luck Kurt! We're cheering for ya!