Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Place Your Bets Giveaway

The final stretch is here!

You know what that means...

It's prediction time!

Here's the deal.  I've never done a Half Ironman, which is how most of my races seem to go up to this point (a lot of "firsts"), but nonetheless I love to spend incredible amounts of time sitting down and coming up with time predictions.  I have my own predictions as to what will happen come race day, but I want to know what YOUR thoughts are.

Will I win the race in four hours flat or will I trudge in around hour eight?  
Will I have as good a day on the bike as I thought?  
Will the new transition setups be easier or more confusing for me?  
I have no idea.  

And what better way to get your thoughts than to tempt you with a giveaway.  Am I right? Everyone loves free stuff.  But here's the catch, I have no idea what it is I'm going to give away.  Think of it as Pandora's Box, but nothing to do with the Pandora jewelry 'cause that shit is expensive. All I'll say is I will have my eyes open this weekend at the race. 

Here's the deal
  • Predict my overall finishing time at the Ironman 70.3 Providence this coming Sunday (I would encourage break downs of that time as well - swim, bike, run, and transition times).
  • Only one prediction per person counts though you're more than welcome to add extras just for fun if you'd like (First prediction counts as official entry). 
  • Must be a follower of this blog.
  • Get your prediction in by 12AM midnight Sunday morning / Saturday night.
  • I will post my own personal predictions Sunday morning before heading to transition.  
  • Follow my race progress Sunday at www.ironman.com (race begins at 6AM)
  • Closest time to my official finish time wins.

Here are the distance details in case you are not familiar:
1.2 mile swim
56 mile bike
13.1 mile run

Feel free to make use of my previous race reports and times as you'd like.  And feel free to break the overall time down if you'd like (Danny, I expect spreadsheets and graphs from you.), but only the final counts as your official entry. 

Let's hear it!

Who's going to be the closest?!

Mumbo-Jumbo Small Print Details
- Giveaway is open to anyone with an address in the U.S. or Canada.
- Entrants must be alive to claim prize
- Entrants with previously established psychic ability are ineligible.
- Entrants who work for fast food chains are ineligible (It's my giveaway, I can do what I want!)


Stay fit.  Stay healthy.  Stay safe. 

22 comments:

Karen said...

Have a great race! I am going to say 5:12.16 How is that for specific? :)

Big Daddy Diesel said...

5:27:26

~K~ said...

hey, i love this idea! I'm all about predicting race times (won another giveaway predicting a marathon time once!), baby's genders and birth weights...all that stuff. Okay, keep in mind I'm a new follower of your blog so I'm not familiar w/ your speed (and too lazy to research..sorry) but I'm going with 5:17:05.

Ironmom (Julie) said...

Swim: 0:35
Bike: 3:15
Run: 2:15
Transitions: 0:08 total

Total: 6:13.00

Good luck! Hope you have a great time!

CupCake@ Bigger Girls Can Run Too said...

I'm going to guess off the top of my head and say 4:55:45.

I think you're going to knock this race out of the park!

Jamie said...

Hmmm I will give this a shot:

Swim: 30:19
Bike: 2:46:17
Run: 1:38:45

So 4:55:02...with transition times maybe 4:59:36?

U got a sub-5 HIM in you I know it! Plus I like some free stuff!

Kick some ass this weekend! I will hopefully do the same in my first ever Tri, the Mpls Tri. Good Luck!

TMB @ RACING WITH BABES said...

First of all, good luck.

Second, my guess is 5:28:36

Tri-Living...Together said...

My prediction is simple.. you will have the time of your life! You will laugh, cry, maybe even angry.. It will be so incredible. It will change you forever!!!!!!!

danny said...

First of all, If I was your coach (or had access to a complete log book), then for sure as hell you'd get the spreadsheets and graphs.

Secondly, I am completely at a loss at trying to figure out appropriate swimming speeds (your daily mile doesn't have shit for swimming).

Third, I have no clue how your transitions are set up and how to extrapolate those with no triathlon experience.

So, with those caveats in mind here goes:

1.2mi swim is roughly a 2,000 meter swim in the open water. This is your favorite event, so you'll put up a good time, but I have no idea what that means. Back in May you did 500m in 7:26, so 2000m would be 30:00 - since its a race and you want to go hard during the swim I'll say 28:30 for the swim time.

56 mile bike ride. Your bike riding (according to DM) has been in the 16-18mph range, so its a race and you'll be warmed up from the swim, but your body temp will be cool due to the water. With a good course you'll average 21mph, so 2:40 for the ride.

13.1 mile run. Though you are getting fast in the shorter distances you don't have the accumulated training to sustain the running portion of the triathlon as you would wish. Plus, you have had some un-explained physiological responses post-runs that will slow you down. A good day/course you will average 7:55 per mile, but for a prediction I say you average 8:13 per mile for a time of 1:47:40.

Transition time of 4.5 minutes (no idea completely WAG: Wild Ass Guess).

Total Half-IM time of: 5:00:40

My suggestion (and this comes from reading about Mark Allen) spend more time running and figure out the nausea/dizzy-ness/whatever after hard runs.

Shelby said...

Okay let's give this a try...

Swim-28 minutes
Bike-2h 50 minutes
Run-1h 45 minutes

T1=5 minutes
T2=5 minutes

Total=~5h 15 minutes (Notice the ~ sign that could mean 5h 10 or even 5h 20 minutes too, right? ;)
BOTTOM LINE=GOOD LUCK!!!

Shelby said...

I also wanted to add that honestly I believe you WILL finish FASTER than my projected time for you-however knowing what a beast the 70.3 is, room for error is always a better bet ;) You will do great!

Run with Jess said...

Great idea! I love prediction guesses!! I'm going with 5:22:13. Go get it Kurt! Good Luck!

Colleen said...

You are going to rock it! :)

I'm going to say 5:28:15.

Remember... smile a lot and have fun!

Coy Martinez said...

Lets see here.

Swim 32 minutes
Bike 2:55
Run 1:50

Total 5:17

Go get em!!

ajh said...

I really have no idea. But I love a wager. I will guess 5:10:10
Good luck.

Forward Foot Strides said...

I'm going to say 5:09:07. Good luck and have an awesome time!

Caroline said...

All the best to you!!!!!
ok here's my prediction

5:18:04

5 Miles 2 Empty said...

Ohhh boy...first of all-I call redic BS on your 8 hour craziness. If I can pull a 7:08 you will not come in at 8. Period.
Second, so sorry I have been seriously MIA!!! I have no idea what happened, other than a 10 day vacation, a camping trip and starting a new job. I have missed you and your blog!

third, my prediction:
Swim-28 (ish)
T1: (I am not sure how far it is from the water to the T area so just guessing here, and are you wearing a wet suit??? I am SO out of the loop) 2:24
Bike-2:40 (ish)
T2: 1:12
Run: 1:53.00

Overall time:5:04.36

Congrats!!! I know you can do it!!

Richelle said...

I'm going to go with a 5:05:10. Good luck! You are going to rock your first 70.3!

Mike said...

5:32 - total
0:35 - swim
2:55 - bike
1:55 - run

Good luck!

Erika said...

Best of luck this weekend! I did my first 70.3 last month and am signed up for another one next month! Definitely caught the bug.

I'm going with 5:105:15.
Swim: 38:04
Bike: 2:35:07
Run: 1:52:04

BEST OF LUCK!!!!

SupermomE12 said...

Ok, I don't know much about tri's at all because I am a one trick pony (running!) but I predict 5:13:45

You are going to rock it! :) Good luck! Can't wait to hear the race report.