No More Bets

All bets are in.

Let's see the cards!

Here's my prediction.

SWIMMING
As Danny pointed out, swimming is my strong suit.  That's where I have the most experience, but also where I spend the least time training.  For race predictions, I'm going to start with last year's Litchfield Hills pace and bump it up a bit.  However, I found out this morning that the water temp is 84 degrees (shoot me now!), so there may be a little extra time in there.

35:00

CYCLING
The bike is going to be a focus on nutrition.  I've hit the wall plenty of times, so my whole goal here is to hit a decent time while putting away enough electrolytes and water to keep me going on the upcoming run.  Again, I am making this prediction based on last years Oly times.   While I feel I'm a much better cyclist now (with still plenty to learn and improve on), I know I'll take it easier with 56 miles than I did with 25 (who knows, maybe I'll just be "in the zone"!).

2:54:00

RUNNING
Now this is where things will be made or break down horribly.  I've only ran one half mary and as you may know, I hit the wall HARD!  This is where I hope my bike nutrition comes to save me.  My plan is to take the first few miles out at what feels like an "easy" sub-threshold pace; something that feels like when I go out for my long runs after a bike ride.  After that, I'll kick it up a notch, testing myself out for a mile at a time.  It's a two loop course and the only hill is in the first mile (and seventh), so I'll ease it up the incline, let my stride open up on the decline, and see what I can get out of my legs once I'm back on flat ground.  My half mary was at 7:14 pace.  The 10k of my Olys were around 8:40 pace.  I am a better runner today and after going 7.5 miles on 2 hours sleep in the back of an SUV at 8:00 pace proceeded by 17 miles of 7:00 pace, I think I can hold an 8:00 pace (I'm hoping those long runs after commuting from work made their impact). 

1:44:48

I've done a bunch of sprints, a couple olys, but this will be my first half iron.  I have no idea how similar the transitions will be.  Better yet, I should say I have no idea how different they'll be.  I know my transition times for the olys and I bet these will be a minute or two longer though I'll do my best to do as much change on the run as possible.

Swim to Bike

5:00

Bike to Run

2:00

And that brings us to my overall predicton

5:20:48

Now, predictions and goals are two totally separate things (am I right?!).

Despite my time prediction, here are my goals

My Goals
1.  Don't get injuried
2.  Finish
3.  Exit the water feeling well warmed up and alert; NOT tired or sore
4.  Finish swim in 29:59
5.  Finish the bike well energized and calves warmed up for the run
6.  Finish bike in 2:30
7.  No walking on the run
8.  After T2 legs are gone, kick it into a solid gear and HOLD!
9.  Rock the run at 1:40:00 (7:38 pace)
10.  Cross the finish line like a F-n ROCKSTAR!!
11.  Cross the finish line in under 5 hours.
12.  Avoid the hospital (no restrictions on the med tent)

In the words of one genuine rockstar, EMZ...

I

Freaking

Got

This!!

See you at the finish line! 

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Questions

1.  Does my prediction alter your own thoughts and predictions?

2.  Do you plan out predictions and goals separately?, or are they one in the same?

I always have a "reach for it" goal and a more realistic idea, but I never let myself settle for realistic.

Stay fit.  Stay healthy.  Stay safe.